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Deer Park, WI

In the process of preparing my presentation for the big show this Saturday, I performed a mathematical analysis on ten year historical data to develop a best-fit trendline for predicting when/if we may see the 3000lb mark surpassed.

I've posted the graphical representation of this analysis in my diary:

http://www.bigpumpkins.com/Diary/DiaryViewOne.asp?eid=269809

The blue line represents the top pumpkin for each year, the green line is top ten GPC pumpkin average. I was genuinely impressed with how well the data fit a linear trendline, with both data sets posting a strong r-squared value (suggesting the data is really tightly linear and the trendline can be trusted). As such, there is some credence to be given to the projections that imply we could see >3000 in 2021 season.

Interestingly, the top pumpkin weight is increasing by about 6% per year, while the TTA is increasing at a bit slower pace of about 5% per year.

Regardless, there seems to be no ceiling in sight for when/if top weights will begin to plateau. Curious to hear what others think...

3/13/2017 4:28:54 PM

Colorado

I had to give up on the plateau idea of pumpkin weights.No end in sight-2624.5 "come on man".Can wait to see what pumpkin beats that-we know its coming.

3/13/2017 6:30:24 PM

Rhode Island

i was always of the belief that everything produced in our gardens has a ceiling.of course i can also remember when the 700 pound club seemed way up there in weights as well and,look how far we have come.

i dont know how much more we can expect from a season thats governed by a 90-100 (or a tad over) days growth cycle?

to attain the top weights from the past couple years we needed some 50 lb per day plus week (or weeks) of consistent growth along with a great taper down as well ---all the while running the risk of splits and blow outs.

i also believe that only a select few from our hobby have the facilities,materials and equipment to provide that perfect climate needed to stretch those weights.

id expect sooner or later even those growers will reach a wall. time will tell

pap

3/13/2017 6:52:11 PM

Oak Grove, Mn

i really don't think the plateau will happen until about 4000 pounds maybe higher...it is true that only a few of the growers have the facilities, material, and equipment to push it to the maximum...but there are those few that will keep pushing the higher weighs. So it costs $25,000+ to grow the biggest..there are those that can afford that number that will push for maximum. Eventually..the average home grower won't be able to compete with the high dollar setups..but how many drivers can keep up with the top racers in the world.

3/13/2017 7:03:28 PM

Grittyville, WA

I am curious to know what the limiting factor is... Bigger fruits and bigger plants ... this is genetic and fortunately for the little guy buying good genetics is the most level part of the playing field. Not many folks are set up to grow to 2600 lbs but lots of people could have beaten their state record and anyone could have afforded that seed (which probably was $60 or $80 last year...) ?

Btw ... the WR pumpkin was six sepals/12 lobe symmetry. If Mike Schmit's was proportionately larger (rather than five sepal / ten lobe symmetry) it seems likely it could have had the potential to reach near 2550. (Multiply 2106 x 6/5)...

3/13/2017 7:51:31 PM

Massachusettts

Weight increase increments will slow and the amount of time between world records will increase (it may be 10 years between 3,307 pounds and 3,307 and 7 ounces). The speed of cell division is increasing as is the thickness of pumpkin walls. I don’t think a ceiling is realistic. Climate change and pollution will do us in before we hit a ceiling.

3/14/2017 10:23:26 AM

Minnesota([email protected])

I agree with pap.

3/14/2017 2:01:57 PM

Deer Park WA

Great thread Joe, yes the statistics over the past ten years shows we are rocketing toward the 3000# mark. I think one of the select few growers pap mentioned with the near laberatory environment and perfect seed will get there in the next couple of years. Or maybe I will get super lucky and do it this year in my backyard!

3/14/2017 11:11:41 PM

Central Illinois

If the WR was regrown but added another 10 pounds per day which would be hard to maintain to me, that would be another 900 to 1100 pounds to the total.

3/15/2017 9:49:53 AM

Stanwood, Washington

If you consider the 2624 as an outlier, It appears that the WR trend line is pretty much parallel to the top 10 average trend line. This being the case I would expect that the projection for a 3K pumpkin will actually be 3 or 4 years farther out than that line suggests.

3/16/2017 1:51:38 PM

Mission Viejo, CA

Curious about how many lbs/ day the 2624 was doing at the time of harvest for its contest and what was left in it, had it been left on the vine?

3/16/2017 1:55:26 PM