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Deer Park, WI

Happy Summer Fellow Fanatics-

I see many posts referring to the benchmark chart compiled by Russ and myself. Its humbling to see this resource so widely utilized by the pumpkin growing community. I wanted to offer some clarification about the analysis and perhaps a better way to utilize the data resulting from our efforts. The "Benchmarks" included in the chart available from Russ's site represent average circumferences of pumpkins that made it to the respective benchmark's final weight. While averages are quick and easy, I personnaly believe that a range (called a 95% confidence interval for the statistically-savvy) is a much better representation of your fruit's ability to achieve big weights. Look at the ranges listed below for 1200lb fruit. The calculation used to derive these numbers implies that 95% of fruit 1200-1299lbs posted numbers within this range. This range allows more flexibility for those looking to achieve 1200+. Obviously circumferences can go above or below the average and still reach 1200. Again, the averages are quick and easy references. The ranges show you the limits of attainability based on the data we've collected thus far. I invite and encourage your questions. Happy growing!

1200    
Average    Range
24    22.5-25.5 D10
70.5    66.5-74.5 D20
113.5    109-118 D30
142.5    138.5-146.5 D40
159.5    155-164.5 D50
170.5    165.5-175.5 D60
175    169.5-180 D70
176    171-181 D80
178.5    170-187 D90

7/26/2008 10:33:52 PM

Minnesota(dw447@fastmail.fm)

Very good explanation Joe.
Looking at the numbers you posted, it surprises me how modest the day 10 and 20 numbers in the range are.
It seems to me the day 10 and 20 numbers are quite a bit less indicative of a pumpkin's potential, than the later numbers...which of course makes sense. I imagine many of the pumpkins that never break 800 lbs. keep up with the 1200 lb. benchmarks, through 20 days.
Thanks for the work you and Russ put into this, as well as to all the grower who submitted the info.

7/27/2008 1:46:06 AM

thanks Joe,,,I wish you would have posted this a couple days ago,,I just yanked 3 plants thinking they were duds :-)


How many fruit are now in the database for 1200 + ?

Great work guys this does provide very helpful info.

7/27/2008 7:44:48 AM

Deer Park, WI

Nice work Dan. Better chance for me to snag my trophy back at Nekoosa. We have between 12-15 data points for each 10-day calculation interval in the charts. Not nearly enough for my tastes, but a start no less.

Doug, your observations are absolutely correct. Days 10, 20, and even 30 do not vary significantly between 1000lb, 1200lb, and even 1400lb fruit. Have a looksee at our averages and ranges for 1400+ below. Recall the D30 Circ benchmark for 1000+ is 114.5". Our numbers show the benchmark for 1400+ is 115". D40, however, is where the men separate from the boys- 1000+ = 140", 1400+ = 145"

1400+    
Average    Range
24.5 23.5-26 D10
74 69.5-78 D20
115 110-120 D30
145 140.5-149.5 D40
162 157-167 D50
172.5 167-177.5 D60
178.5 172.5-185 D70
181 174-188 D80
188 181.5-196 D90

7/27/2008 8:52:06 AM

Cottage Grove, MN

I just culled everything I have, working on apples now! Thanks Joe, great info.

7/27/2008 11:02:39 AM

Thanks for posting these 1400# numbers joe they will come in handy,,,,see ya at Nekoosa ;-)

7/27/2008 10:56:58 PM

Joe, what if we are at the D40 1400 BM at D30???

7/28/2008 9:13:44 AM

Ontario, Canada.

Unknown, your fruit is gonna blow. Better cut it off now and save yourself the heart ache! LOL.

I would say that you are ten days ahead of the benchmark.
Here are the current records in the data base.

Day 30 = 288" OTT. Records
    
1446 Werner 06         
1394 Werner 07        
1353 Carlson Peterson    

Day 30 = 137.5" CC. Records     

1502 Wallace 06    

For more information please visit the GPC resources page or GVGO.ca

http://greatpumpkincommonwealth.com/resources.php            
    

7/28/2008 12:15:16 PM

Ontario, Canada.

Current Benchmark Record CC Measurements, Ten Day Intervals.                            
Day 10 = 40", 1073* Landry 06 UOW            
20 = 95, 930 Carlson-Petersen 04            
30 = 137.5, 1502 Wallace 06                
40 = 161, 1237 McKie 06, DQ, 1446 Werner 06, 1353 Carlson/Petersen        
50 = 182, 1556.5 Werner 07         
60 = 195, 1556.5 Werner 07                 
70 = 204.5 1556.5 Werner 07                
80 = 208.75 1556.5 Werner 07                 
90 = 211.5 1556.5 Werner 07             
Final CC = 215.5 > 1556.5 Werner 07, CC 215.5 OTT 427                                     

7/28/2008 12:21:01 PM

Ontario, Canada.

Current Benchmark Record OTT Measurements, Ten Day Intervals.                                        
Day 10 = NA                     
20 = 204.3"", 1446 Werner 06                 
30 = 288, 1446 Werner 06, 1394 Werner 07, 1353 Carlson Peterson                        
40 = 348, 1353 Carlson Peterson                
50 = 386, 1662 Young 07                    
60 = 411, 1662 Young 07                    
70 = 421, 1662 Young 07                
Final OTT = 441,1469 Checkon 05.                                         

7/28/2008 12:24:45 PM

Knopp, Germany

when the tailgate drops......

7/28/2008 2:06:34 PM

Deer Park, WI

....the stat guys grab their calculators. :)

Unknown Teabagger- Make sure you are using the right side of the tape. There are 2.54 centimeters/inch. Recalculate accordingly.

Thanks for the info, Russ!

7/28/2008 7:10:12 PM

Williamsburg,KY

Thank you so much for this information and for sharing it. Its seems I may just be on the way for a big one..day 20 79", cant wait to see what I get on Day 30. Again, thanks.

7/29/2008 3:02:43 PM

Windsor, Ontario, Canada

LMAO, unknown teabagger. Perhaps Joze knows this unknown...

7/29/2008 3:34:41 PM

Preston CT

You might need to update the record OTT bench mark for 30 Days because Capecod Steve has got a big one growing, 300 OTT!

7/30/2008 2:32:00 PM

Garden State Pumpkins

my chart for day thirty sez 121 inches for a 1200 lber...these charts are 118....is this the 95% figure?

7/30/2008 4:11:04 PM