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Muddy Waters

Think of Pumpkins as people.Siblings can vary greatly even twins can be different in some ways. Not exacts. I will be very surprised if the 800 is as good as the 2145.On a second note.I always see these remakes. a remake is like taking say 21 brothers & sisters from say a Amish family. Bob Amish had a really great child with Betty his wife.So I will take Bobs brother & marry him to Bettys sister & have a child.The child will be totally different. Remakes are a silly attempt to duplicate the silver bullet.

& remember Pumpkins are people to.lol

3/23/2017 7:32:16 AM

Muddy Waters

For you English PO PO OPINION lol

3/23/2017 7:32:59 AM

Menomonie, WI (mail@gr8pumpkin.net)

I disagree with your theory. Take Horses, Cows, and other animals into consideration. Lots of back breeding occurs.

3/23/2017 7:44:10 AM

Muddy Waters

The reverse cross has a much greater chance then a remake.But coming in the reverse way the Chromosomes will most likely line up differently. Now He is she & she is he.Take a walk on the wild side!!lol It will be differnt in some ways. Confused?? ask questions below. I want you to understand the science behind this.

3/23/2017 8:09:19 AM

Muddy Waters

The 21 sisters & brothers is no theory its a fact.Breeding siblings will not give you the same exact off spring

3/23/2017 8:11:34 AM

Muddy Waters

No disrespect intended Linus.Just wanting growers to understand they are just like people when it comes to breeding. I think this helps them to understand it better.Hope to see you next week in Wisconsin Rapids

3/23/2017 8:24:49 AM

Deer Park, WI

There's a larger question at stake here than remake potential. While your amish family metaphor is a good way to talk about "remakes", the assumption that Bob & Betty's child "is really great" is painfully subjective.

Bear with me as I try to frame what is an unpopular concept-

The 2145 is likely regarded as the #1 seed in the hobby because in its first year out, it produced notable progeny. Due to the "herd mentality bias" i described at the podium in Niagara, this seed will receive preferential treatment both in the patch and in numbers. As such, it is destined for greatness as growers continue to "prove" its quality.

800 or any other remake of this seed will never receive fair comparison and as such will be deemed inferior to 2145. It is entirely reasonable to assume that 800 has equal to or possibly superior genetic potential as 2145. We'll never know because we do not have an objective way to quantify these variables.

And that is the fatal flaw in all our attempts identify top genetics in this hobby. We simply do not have a way to measure potential. Using historical performance is fatally biased because of herd mentality and preferential treatment.

3/23/2017 9:46:22 AM

Massachusetts

Bubbas own 1317 would argue against this line of thinking. The 1566 WR had a smaller sister. No smaller sister in this case means no 1495. No 1625. No 2624. And no 1317.

3/23/2017 9:50:36 AM

Muddy Waters

You lost me Tom?? Texting is kinda of rough this way.I need more detail on what your sayng here?

Now Joe I hear ya! So if a guy wanted to prove this theory.You could put up 50 grand for 1st 10 grand for second place Oh what the hell.Lets make 3rd & 4th place 10 grand to. Then we could prove it. Maybe in time we will do this exact thing.

3/23/2017 10:20:09 AM

Colorado

800 is probably much closer genetically to the 2145 seed than your suggesting since its a reverse cross of the same parents not a remake.Joes correct in that the 2145 will get tried more by more upper tier growers so its likely to keep it "apparent" better status.Middle tier me is growing both since I believe they both have great traits that can poss. grow me a PB.

3/23/2017 11:43:59 AM

Colorado

Bubba tom is referring to the 1161 rodonis which did better on paper than than its reverse cross 1566.As joe a. mentioned on paper isn't a fair statistical test between seeds in fact its a very skewed test.The 1161 happened to get tried with a great result first year out and is a big player in current genetics.

3/23/2017 12:14:09 PM

Deer Park, WI

Tom- your observation is correct, 1161 went on to produce a larger set of higher weights than its 1566 reverse cross patch-mate (not technically sisters, as 1161 and 1566 came from different mommas.)

Despite this factually correct observation, it does not, however, imply that 1161 was genetically superior to 1566. We are led to draw this conclusion because the historical record shows how well it performed relative to other seeds of that time. That record is horribly biased tho and cannot be the precedent for how we distinguish top genetics. Once again, due to notable performance in its rookie year, opportunity and preference bias worked in its favor, propelling it to "proven" status. One can absolutely argue that 1566 did not receive identical opportunity and preference as 1161, and therefore, any comparisons are apples to oranges.

I really dont like to sound like Debbie-downer when it comes to seed selection. Its a huge part of the excitement of growing...myself included. We just simply cannot get around the fact that we've got no way to adequately measure genetic potential.

3/23/2017 12:35:48 PM

Deer Park, WI

While I like your idea of a $50k purse "in the name of science", I'm afraid it wouldnt lead us to the goal of identifying genetic superiority. That money would be better served investing in experimental design that removed all the "biases" that prevent us from making true apples:apples comparisons.

In a "blue sky" world, multiple land grant universities would select a small pool of top weight seeds, grow multiple replications of each seed in identical conditions using identical world-class techniques. in order to reach a respectable degree of statistical significance in comparisons of each seed line, more than 20 or so of these comparisons would likely need to be run to begin teasing out any notable difference in genetic potential.

3/23/2017 12:44:25 PM

Muddy Waters

Sounds nearly impossible Joe to get exact grows like you suggest.You would need 4O acres & a bottom less wallet.I think I will just focus on raising the 50 grand.Give me a couple years I might put it together.

3/23/2017 12:57:43 PM

Deer Park, WI

Working in the corn/soybean seed industry has exposed me to how breeders and agronomists perform trials to determine how new hybrids compare to existing hybrids. Here, we are searching for true, demonstrated genetic superiority...same as our goal in pumpkin world. Seed companies will do exactly as I described above, placing large volumes of seed in research plots across a wide spectrum of geographies with highly controlled environments where each hybrid being compared gets identical treatment in the field. Harvest yield data is captured and the stats geeks crunch a dizzying array of numbers to develop a metric called "least significant difference". This number gives us an idea of how to compare outcomes and extract conclusions from them.

To give you a sense of the magnitude of the numbers in this type of research, a single 500 ft strip with 6 rows (minimum size in this biz) contains 5510 corn seeds (@32,000/acre). If we assume ~20 research plots to create a statistically useful data set, that translates to 1.1 million corn seeds contributing to the performance evaluation of just a single hybrid.

Perhaps not the best comparison to the world of giant pumpkins, but it does serve as perspective for how challenging it is to find ways to extract meaningful data on genetic potential/performance.

3/23/2017 12:58:22 PM

Massachusetts

Re Bubbalogic, my point is that if Bill Rodonis has thrown the smaller of his crosses (same parents) in the trash then we all would have missed out on pumpkin greatness. So not a good idea IMO.

I heard Joe speak at Niagara and appreciate his perspective. To me the 1566/1161 is a great example of the herd moving quickly. The 1161 was not widely planted in its rookie year except for a beauty grown by Quinn Werner that was 11% over. So the herd moved. Ron Wallace then grew a 1596 which was 13% over the following year and the 1566 got left in the dust.

Good discussion. My apologies for earlier calling the 1566 a WR. That was an 'alternative fact'

3/23/2017 1:34:29 PM

Muddy Waters

Im not saying to disregard anyones seeds whatsoever.Im saying dont expect siblings to produce the same results in a different grow.Even in the same grow coming back the other way it could line the Genes up differently.No pun intended Mr. McMullen .lol They could do better but with the likes of the 2145 its doubtful.Most heavy hitters disregarded the 2145 its first year out due to its not so perfect shape.Wait to you see year two on the 2145.It will grow at least 6 kins over 2000 lbs in 2017. If the weather plays out good maybe a new WR from it. Joe, Bubba is a herd grower for sure I herd Mathias grew a 2624 then I herd it grew 5 of the top 20.So I thunk? Bubba dont be turd run with the HERD!!!LOL

3/23/2017 5:51:11 PM

Muddy Waters

I do respect what your saying Joe totally and you are right in a perfect world we could find better genetics.Butt here is the Big BUTT!! The 2145 is the best in west for now. Anything else is a bigger gamble.

3/23/2017 5:53:17 PM

Muddy Waters

Then Ma Ma Bubba said " Bubba if your going to be turd go lay in the yard" LOL

3/23/2017 5:55:36 PM

norway , maine

Tom K the 1566 was a WR for a brief time

3/23/2017 6:30:37 PM

Ontario

I was going to try the 2063.5 Willemijns just to try for a new personal best but maybe I should just feed it to the pigeons lol

3/23/2017 8:28:29 PM

Muddy Waters

Thats a great seed give it to me ORV

3/23/2017 8:35:04 PM

Grittyville, WA

What Tom K is saying is the 800 could end up being the 1161. The 2145 could end up being the 1566. Bubba is betting on the 2145 nothing wrong with making a bet. But the 800s potential is in fact equal, other than folks may give the 2145 a better spot in the patch. I think Bubba will be right too but it's heads or tails... and betting heads costs 5x more lol...

3/23/2017 10:41:08 PM

Sissonville wva

what about the what if factor what if ron had ran a fan on the 2307 just thinking what if

3/23/2017 11:16:44 PM

Owensboro, Ky.

Thanks, Glen...I am going to plant & grow my 800!!! Peace, Wayne

3/24/2017 1:33:53 AM

Springfield, Missouri

Hey Bubba! I'll try to clarify some of the science, hopefully without making things more confusing.

You correctly described a remake. (Two sisters [say two 2009 Wallace seeds] marry two brothers [say two 1495 Stelts seeds]). The cross is the same on paper (2009 X 1475) but the offspring of the first cross are double first cousins (25% related) to the offspring of the second cross.

It is incorrect to say that the 800 is a remake of the 2145. Pumpkins have the ability to be both male and female... in this case the 800 is the reciprocal cross of the 2145... reciprocal means that the mother of the first cross was used as the father of the second cross and the father of the first cross was used as the mother of the second cross. 800 seeds are brother/sister to 2145 seeds not double first cousins.

IF you did a DNA test on a handful of 800 seeds and a handful of 2145 seeds they would all look equally related to one another (50% relatedness for siblings)... in other words you wouldn't be able to say this one is definitely a 2145 and this one is definitely a 800.

Genes don't align differently in a reciprocal cross.

3/24/2017 11:55:02 AM

The "genes don't align differently" statement doesn't make sense to me. Along with the concept that you could not tell the difference between a handful of 800 and 2145 seeds, because we can't tell the difference from a handful of seeds from any pumpkin.
Correct me if I am wrong, but each seed (egg) is pollinated by a single pollen grain ( sperm), so every seed in a pumpkin can be different ( just like siblings), different meaning different alleles. So the only way that every seed in a pumpkin can be genetically the same is if the parents are homozygous for every trait.

3/24/2017 12:48:11 PM

Springfield, Missouri

Lint, alleles (genes) are randomly assorted in the process of meiosis. This is the reason siblings are unique. When I say genes don't align differently I was responding to Bubba's statement," But coming in the reverse way the Chromosomes will most likely line up differently".

What I should have said is that loci don't move/ chromosomes aren't aligned different in reciprocal cross.

Lint, I never said all 800 and 2145 seeds are genetically the same... I said, " they would all look equally related to one another (50% relatedness for siblings)... in other words you wouldn't be able to say this one is definitely a 2145 and this one is definitely a 800"

50% relatedness means half your alleles are the same.
100% relatedness is when all offspring are genetically the same, and yes that requires homozygous parents.

We actually can tell the difference between seeds if we look at the DNA. Seed companies, universities, and forensics labs use this technology everyday. We can tell who the parents were, relationship to other individuals, where a trait is in the genome, how inbred an individual is, and how much genetic diversity is in a population.

3/24/2017 7:29:37 PM

Owensboro, Ky.

Mopkn, so from what I have read so far...my lil (5x1 cost ratio) disrespected 800 seed, stands a decent chance? Peace, Wayne LOL
Sorta think that doing all that DNA testing stuff costs a lot, eh?

3/25/2017 2:18:05 AM

Muddy Waters

Bubbas getting a headache lol Science gets too deep for me.lol I got a 10th grade education & a christian raising there aint no reason for ya all to be speaking this way.lol

All I know for sure is this.You wont duplicate the exact the exact cross without maybe a clone involved.Maybe its the chromosomes that line up differently? Not sure,just saying I have never seen a reverse cross match & do as good as the original. Maybe its the herd rule? I will stick to the 2145 Im growing 2 this year.If the 800 does as well I will eat CROW/till then have a good grow.No disrespect here to anyones grow. If you like the 800 go for it.Butt remember it aint all science that grows giants. Its great growers who put in hard work & effort.You create your own luck by hard work spent in the patch & common sense methods.

3/25/2017 6:06:15 AM

Willamette Valley, Oregon

Joze, MOpumpkins, and Cojoe are correct. Bubba is right about remakes, but not reciprocal crosses, ie 2145 vs 800 (sorry Bubba).

In addition to the biases Joze discusses, the total number of fruit grown has a huge impact probability-wise on the largest-fruit-grown, if that is the assessment metric one judges seeds by.

Being grown 35+ times as the 2145 has, gives it a real advantage in terms of the maximum fruit grown vs the 800.

Assume (correctly) that the 800 seeds and the 2145 seeds are the same family and thus have the same expected distribution of traits....

Now consider this analogy: Two hats (let's label them 800 and 2145...arbitrarily ;) ) each filled with 100 papers numbered 1 to 100. You can draw 1 paper from 800 hat, and 35 papers from 2145 hat. Which hat will have the highest value on a paper? Are the starting numbers in the two hats any different because of this result?

3/26/2017 1:37:04 PM

Lima, Ohio

We will find out after this season. There will be a lot of 800's seeing dirt.

3/26/2017 8:10:18 PM

Owensboro, Ky.

B&O, I am also curious to see the numbers after this year, if a lot of 800's see dirt. I will plant one, but I don't live in the golden zone!Peace, Wayne

3/28/2017 3:23:49 PM

Owensboro, Ky.

bat...asking loaded ?'s cause the answers are allready (thoughts imbedded in their brains) known? If you let em pick b/4 they start the plants...then they will certainly pick from the 2145 hat!!! Peace

3/28/2017 3:29:43 PM

Utah

I'm staying out of this one .... lol

But listen to Bathabitat, Jose, MOpumpkins and Cojoe - they know what they are talking about.

Bubba- you started it- so you have to listen - lol.

and if there are any 800's out there lying around- I'd be happy to try one. :)

3/28/2017 3:48:16 PM

President - GPC

Gordon, You should email CoJoe for his crosses.....2145 X 800 ... worth a try and you got both....lol

3/28/2017 4:02:50 PM

JACKSON, WISCONSIN. ; )

I'll plant both and I guess I'll see

3/28/2017 11:50:09 PM

Kind of ironic that the seed creating a big herd mentality was grown by a grower that did not go with the herd. And the world record was grown by somebody that also did not follow the herd.
what do you think of that Joze? !

4/8/2017 1:14:43 PM

I guess it proves your point.

4/8/2017 1:15:42 PM

JACKSON, WISCONSIN. ; )

Only one way to know grow em if yawl got em hell I'll growsem both n find out that's what I say

Thanks Steve..... for the seeds you know who you are ..... nough said

4/9/2017 1:12:59 AM

Deer Park, WI

Spudder...spot on. lends credence to my point. :)

4/11/2017 3:30:18 PM